Evaluating my "Prediction" on the Trayvon Martin Tragedy

A couple of weeks ago, on March 24, I made a prediction about how things would unfold in the process of bringing George Zimmerman to justice. Now that things are beginning to happen, let's take a look at my prediction and see where things are going ...


Here was my prediction ... 


"A grand jury will find the necessary grounds to indict Zimmerman and will eventually be charged with some form of homicide."

Angela Corey

Well ... as things have turned out, a Special Prosecutor was assigned to the case. Angela Corey dismissed the Grand Jury, and in the process of doing so, the burden or duty of determining if Zimmerman will be charged fell upon her alone. 


"I suspect the charge will be Title XLVI (46); Chapter 782.07: 'Aggravated Manslaughter of a Child' That statute is defined as follows: 'A person who causes the death of any person under the age of 18 by culpable negligence under s. 827.03(3) (Child Abuse statutes) commits aggravated manslaughter of a child, a felony of the first degree.' The punishments for this can lead up to the death penalty" (He can also face as few as 10 years or up to 25 years to life if the death penalty is not put on the table - and it's likely that it won't be an option)


In little more than an hour from now at 6pm (est), Prosecutor Corey will be giving a press conference, at which time she is expected to announce that Zimmerman will be charged and what it is he will be charged with. We'll just have to wait and see.


"A warrant for his arrest will be issued, but there will be no SWAT raid hunting him down or banging down his door. Zimmerman's attorney will be notified of the warrant and Zimmerman will be allowed to turn himself in."

Craig Sonner (left) Hal Urig (right)

Yesterday, Zimmerman's legal advisors held a press conference stating that they had lost contact with him and that since Zimmerman was in talks with the Prosecutor's Office and not them, they could not in good conscience represent him. However, they also stated should Zimmerman come to them and seek to retain their services, they will represent him. Personally, I believe that he "dismissed" his advisors, so that he could speak with the Prosecutors of his own volition without putting his counsel in any kind of jackpot or conflict of interest. Remember ... Zimmerman's father is a retired judge. Best believe there are some serious chess-like moves being made here. After his charges are announced he will be allowed to turn himself in. This is not some grand scale terrorist, so no one is going to authorize spending the money and manpower in deploying a SWAT tea to get him. He will retain counsel and turn himself in.


"There will be a ridiculously high bail - probably $1M or $2M. Zimmerman will either be offered a plea deal to avoid the death penalty or plead Not Guilty and take his chances with a jury. My guess is that he will take a plea deal to avoid the death penalty. He will be placed in 23 hour protective custody for the entirety of his sentence ... And he STILL might get got."


Yesterday, during the press conference given by Zimmerman's former legal advisor, one of the attorneys stated that if anyone wanted to engage in an "Easter egg hunt" in searching for Zimmerman had better look "beyond Florida." This goes to show that Zimmerman can be considered a flight risk, and will likely face a high bail.


Less than an hour remains before Zimmerman's charge (it's suspected to be only ONE charge) is announced. Let's sit back & see what happens.